Vahagn Galstyan

Publications
Working Papers
Other Publications
Exchange Rates
CV
X'Y
Central Bank of Ireland
New Wapping Street
North Wall Quay
Dublin 1
Ireland

Working Papers

  • Global Risk and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets: Evidence from Irish-Resident Investment Funds, (with Benedetta Bianchi and Valerie Herzberg), December 2020.

    Abstract: In this paper we analyse the behaviour of investment fund flows to emerging markets after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Our data points towards a structural growth in investment funds that purchase debt rather than equity securities. Empirically, we find that debt flows have higher sensitivity to global risk than equity flows, suggesting an increasing policy focus primarily on debt funds. We also show that Irish-resident funds’ sensitivity to changes in global risk sentiment co-varies negatively with a measure of sovereign credit rating of the receiving emerging market economy, a finding consistent with a notion that good fundamentals in host countries can mitigate outflows arising from swings in external funding conditions. Finally, we show that funds whose equity structure is tilted towards investors residing further away tend to invest less in countries than funds whose investors are closer to the same countries. This is noteworthy, given these results refer to Irish-resident investment funds that intermediate global financial flows.


  • How Persistent are International Capital Flows?, January 2009.

    Abstract: This paper documents the dynamic properties of the current account, trade balance and international capital flows. For this purpose, two approaches are taken: probit and a nonparametric estimation. The probabilistic approach shows that, in general, deficits and net inflows tend to be more persistent than surpluses and net outflows. This result is robust to either specification of pooled and country-specific probits. The results of non-parametric estimation are in line with the results obtained from the probit.


  • Optimal Policy and the Sectoral Composition of Output in a New Keynesian Model, (with Michael Wycherley), March 2012.

    Abstract: This paper analyses optimal policy on the basis that the economy comprises a number of different sectors. It shows that the composition of output matters, that policy should take into account the source of shocks as well as their aggregate magnitude, and that policy tools impacting individual sectors can be significantly welfare improving. If sectoral policy is not adopted, then commitment in tax policy is important in similar ways and for similar reasons to commitment in monetary policy. With sectoral policy, commitment for tax and monetary policies ceases to be important.


  • Terms of Trade in the Medium-run, October 2011.

    Abstract: This paper contributes to empirical research on the dynamics of the terms of trade. We start by proposing a method for constructing different measures of the terms of trade. This is achieved by estimating a range of substitution elasticities using a panel data approach and highly disaggregated data on trade flows. Next, various measures of the terms of trade and trade margins are related to productivity and demand proxies. We find that domestic demand side movements are positively related to the terms of trade, while domestic productivity gains result in a deterioration of the terms of trade. Our results suggest that higher relative productivity raises the real component of exports relative to imports along the intensive margin inducing a weakening of the terms of trade.